After posting my top 20 positional
prospects for 2011 on Friday, here’s my list for top 20 pitching
prospects. Scouting pitchers is a lot
different than scouting hitters because there are a lot more factors that come
into play, and it is significantly harder to just look at a stat line, maybe
read a few scouting reports, and form an opinion on someone. And to top it all off, your favorite pitching
prospect could go blow out his arm and we’d be back at square one (see: Jorge
Bucardo). This is my first year ranking
the pitching prospects of the organization, so there’s likely to be some bumps
and bruises along the way, but here goes.
20. Chris Heston, RHP (starter)
Heston was the Giants’ 12th
round pick in 2009 out of East Carolina University. He’s 23 and he pitched in high-A this year,
so he’s old for the level, but he performed pretty well, posting a 3.28 FIP in
151 innings with 7.81 K/9 and 2.38 BB/9.
At 6’4”, 185 lbs., he’s a big fella, but he seems like more of a pitch
to contact kind of guy. He could be a
useful bullpen guy slash spot starter down the road, but I’d like to see what
he can do in double A first.
19. Jake Dunning, RHP (reliever)
After being converted from a shortstop
to a pitcher in March 2010, Dunning started this season as a starter before
being converted to a reliever in late May.
In 76 innings at high-A San Jose, he struck out 8.41 batters per nine
innings and walked 2.84. According to
scouting reports he has a fastball that clocks in the low to mid 90s with a
slider and a changeup. His ceiling is as
a middle reliever in the mold of Santiago Casilla.
18. Jacob Dunnington, RHP (reliever)
Only 20 years old, Dunnington started
the year in single-A Augusta before getting promoted to San Jose in early
July. He was pretty good in Augusta for
43 innings before dominating in San Jose, posting a K/9 rate over 12. His walk rate is a bit high though, and that
caused his K/BB ratio for the season to fall at exactly 2.0. He’s very good at limiting the home runs,
however, and he’s got a ceiling as either a set up guy or potentially a
closer. He should start next year back
in San Jose, with a promotion to Richmond likely at some point during the
season.
17. Brett Bochy, RHP (reliever)
This is probably an aggressive ranking
for Bochy, but this guy is more than just organizational filler (and son of the
big league manager). A closer for Kansas
last year before falling victim to Tommy John, he returned this season to put
up big numbers for single-A Augusta. He
reminds me of Brian Wilson: closer for big-conference school who blows his arm
out, gets drafted late on day two, and then returns to dominate as a
reliever. He put up a 12.23 K/9 rate and
a 1.85 BB/9 rate, for an unreal 6.63 K/BB ratio. Hopefully the organization is aggressive with
Bochy and promotes him to double A next year.
I also would have liked to see him in the AFL this year.
16. Edwin Escobar, LHP (starter)
Escobar originally signed with the
Rangers in 2009 for $350K out of Venezuela.
The Giants then traded for him last April. This year Escobar started the season with
Augusta, making four appearances (two starts) before being sent back to
extended spring training. He then made
fourteen appearances (twelve starts) with the AZL Rookie team. In Arizona he posted an 8.22 K/9 rate and a
3.33 BB/9 rate, good for a 3.37 FIP.
He’s only 19, so he has a lot of room to improve, but this ranking is
really just a shot in the dark. Next
year will be an important one for him.
15. Seth Rosin, RHP (reliever)
Rosin, the Giants’ 4th rounder
in 2010, spent the season as the closer for single-A Augusta. A prototypical closer type, reports have
Rosin listed at either 6’5” or 6’6”, and between 235 and 250 lbs. – a big boy
no matter how you slice it. He comes at
batters with a four-seamer in the 94-96 range, and two-seamer at about 92, and
a changeup around 78-81. He reported
also throws a slider, but that pitch still needs work. He pitched a full season in Augusta, and
here’s what he has to show for it: 89 innings, 39 appearances (10 starts,
although none since June 29), 93 K’s, 30 BB’s, 2.63 FIP. He looks like a reliever going forward, and
we should see him in San Jose next season.
14. Reinier Roibal, RHP (starter)
Roibal is a Cuban defector who signed
with the Giants before the 2010 season.
In his first full season Roibal threw 63 1/3 innings, struck out 58, and
walked 17. He shows good command and an
ability to miss some bats, although he doesn’t get superior strikeout
numbers. Still, a 2.95 FIP in low-A is
encouraging. He could use another season
before it becomes apparent exactly what the Giants have in Roibal.
13.
Lorenzo Mendoza, RHP (starter)
Mendoza made 14 starts and pitched 73
innings in low-A Salem-Keizer this season.
Mendoza was attractive to me as a prospect for a couple of reasons: his
age (this year was his age-19 season) and his K/BB ratio (4.25). He should start next year in the Augusta
rotation, and as a 20-year-old he’ll be one of the younger pitchers in that
league.
12. Enmanuel de Jesus, LHP (starter)
De Jesus, who was born six days into
1994 (!!), was the number two starter for the Giants’ Dominican Summer League
affiliate. Even though only 17 years
old, he posted a 2.36 FIP in 46 2/3 innings, striking out 59 and walking
20. I’m actually probably underselling
de Jesus here; there’s a good argument to be made that he’s in the top 7 or so
pitching prospects in the system. His
high-ish walk rate is my one concern, but I expect to see him back in the DSL
next year and competing at a similarly high level.
11. Demondre Arnold, RHP
(starter/reliever)
Arnold was the Giants’ 25th
rounder this year out of a Georgia CC.
He’s only 19, and struck out 32 while only walking 8 in 26 2/3 innings
in rookie ball. He’s got a low-90s
fastball with some projection, a low-80s changeup, and is reported working on a
curveball. He relieved this year but
will get a chance to start next year, most likely at low-A Salem-Keizer.
10. Ryan Verdugo, LHP (starter)
Verdugo is one of the Giants’ few
pitching prospects in the upper minors. This
was Verdugo’s first year being a full-time starter, and he performed
admirably. In 130 1/3 innings, he struck
out 133 batters and walked 63. He had a
penchant for giving up the home run this season (14 of them) so his FIP isn’t
great looking at 4.10, but overall I’m pretty pleased. He also seemed to fade a bit down the
stretch, probably as a result of the increased workload. We’ll see him next year in Fresno.
9. Joan Gregorio, RHP (starter)
Gregorio pitched in the Arizona Rookie
League this year after pitching in the DSL last season. He really made some positive strides,
foremost being a jump in his strikeout rate.
He possesses the ability to miss bats, only giving up 7.7 hits per nine
innings, a very good rate. A 2.88 FIP in
Arizona is really fantastic, and at only 19 years of age, he’s a guy to be very
excited about. Scouting reports are hard
to find, so I can’t report on his stuff, but I look forward to seeing him in
Salem-Keizer next year.
8. Kendry Flores, RHP (starter)
Flores profiles as similar to Lorenzo
Mendoza: 19-year-old right-handed starter in low A. Flores had some decent stats as well, with 47
strikeouts and 14 walks in 48 innings.
He’s got a low-90s fastball, plus changeup, and slurvy breaking ball
that could use some work. We’ll see him
joining Mendoza in the Augusta rotation next season.
7. Adalberto Mejia, LHP (starter)
Here’s a guy I’m genuinely excited to
see when he comes stateside next year.
Mejia, 18 years old, pitched 76 innings this season in the DSL, racking
up 71 strikeouts against only 8 walks.
That kind of command is nearly unmatched in the Giants’ system. He reportedly throws his fastball somewhere
between 87-92, has a good changeup, and is working on refining a
slurve/curveball. He and his 1.88 FIP
will be coming to Arizona (Salem-Keizer?
Fingers crossed!) next season. He
also reportedly is pitching in the Arizona Instructional League this winter.
6. Mike Kickham, LHP (starter)
As a 22-year-old in single-A this year,
Kickham threw 111 2/3 innings, struck out 103, and walked 37. His 3.48 FIP looks pretty good, as well. He’s ranked this high because he’s one of the
high-floor, low-ceiling types that are always underrated, but very valuable to
have. He’s got a low-90s fastball, a
slider, a 12-6 curveball, and is working on a changeup. He should move fast next year; I predict
he’ll start the year out in high-A, with a mid-season promotion to
double-A. He could be contributing to
the big league club as soon as mid-2013.
5. Clayton Blackburn, RHP (starter)
Blackburn was the Giants’ 16th
round pick this year out of an Oklahoma HS.
He’s a big boy at 6’3”, 220 lbs.
He signed early enough to pitch in the Arizona Rookie League this
season, striking out 30 and walking only 3 in 33 1/3 innings. He was ranked #4 on Baseball America’s top 20
AZL prospects end of the year roundup.
He throws a low-90s fastball and compliments it with a curveball and a changeup
that could use some work. The key word
for Blackburn is projectability. This
guy could really break out next year and shoot up some prospect lists. I expect to see him in Salem-Keizer next
year, although a spot in Augusta isn’t out of the question.
4. Josh Osich, LHP (starter)
The Giants’ sixth rounder this year,
Osich had some arm problems at the end of the college season and didn’t pitch
professionally this summer. He was
considered a first-round talent before the injury, so drafting him in the sixth
was a steal. He had Tommy John surgery,
which caused him to miss the entire 2010 season, so he does have a history of
arm trouble. Osich throws a mid-90s
fastball, a plus change, and had begun using his slider as a setup pitch for
his fastball this season. Hopefully,
with an entire winter to rest and rehab his arm, we’ll see Osich is full season
ball next year.
3. Heath Hembree, RHP (reliever)
Hembree is the premiere relief prospect
in the Giants’ system, and should be ready to contribute as early as next
season. In stops in San Jose and
Richmond, he struck out 13.2 batters per nine, walked 4.2 per nine, and only
surrendered 6.1 hits per nine. And that
all together, and that says “closer of the future.” Fun fact: in 24 1/3 innings in San Jose this
season, Hembree stranded 97% of all base runners. That’s obviously unsustainable, but that’s
the kind of facts I like to share about relief prospects. Hembree boasts a mid- to high-90s fastball, a
“power slider” (per BA), and a changeup.
It shouldn’t be long before we see him taking the closing reins from
Brian Wilson in the ninth inning in San Francisco.
2. Kyle Crick, RHP (starter)
Crick was the Giants’ supplemental round
pick this season. He signed relatively
late and only threw seven professional innings this year, with poor results,
but this guy has all the makings of a future ace or #2. He reminds me a lot of Matt Cain: a big burly
right-hander from a Southern high school.
He’s got an easy delivery, and arm problems shouldn’t ever be a problem. He sits mid-90s with his fastball, he’s got a
plus curveball, and is working on a slider and a changeup. He’s only 18 years old, so he’ll probably be
limited to short season ball next year, most likely in Salem-Keizer, but he’s
got all the makings of the next Giants’ great pitching prospect.
1. Eric Surkamp, LHP (starter)
Surkamp suffered a hip injury last
season, and going into this year no one was really sure what to expect. He silenced all doubters by striking out 165
in 142 1/3 innings, while walking only 44 and giving up only 5 home runs. He got called up to the big leagues on August
27, and he struggled in 26 2/3 big league innings. Barring that setback, Surkamp will be ready
to contribute to the big league squad as early as next spring. He will be right in the middle of the battle
for the fifth spot in the rotation, and if he can remember how to strike out
batters he could be one of the most valuable fifth starters in the league. Surkamp has a high-80s/low-90s fastball, but
he complements that with a plus curveball that just plain misses bats. He also sports a solid changeup. I expect that he will start the season in
Fresno before earning a May call-up after a few Zito runsplosions.
So there’s the Giants’ top 20 pitching
prospects. You might notice I left Jorge
Bucardo off this list, he missed all year with an undisclosed shoulder
injury. We’ll see how he recovers and
where he starts next year, but I didn’t feel comfortable ranking him in the top
20 without some kind of news about the injury and why it kept him out all
season.
Feel free to leave me feedback, how you
feel about this list, or anything that strikes your fancy. Soon enough, I’ll be looking at the free
agent market to target some players I think the Giants should be interested in.
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