Before the season started, I took my first stab at making a top-20 prospects list for the Giants. I focused on position players only, because position players, largely, are who their statistics say they are. Pitchers have a lot more going on, and video scouting plays a much larger role in their prospect status, or at least that’s what I believe. Anyway, here’s the original list:
1. Brandon Belt, 1B
2. Francisco Peguero, OF
3. Chuckie Jones, OF
4. Tommy Joseph, C
5. Gary Brown, OF
6. Thomas Neal, OF
7. Jose Flores, 3B
8. Ehire Adrianza, SS
9. Charlie Culberson, 2B
10. Conor Gillaspie, 3B
11. Brandon Crawford, SS
12. Brock Bond, 2B
13. Chris Dominguez, 3B
14. Jarrett Parker, OF
15. Hector Sanchez, C
16. Juan Perez, OF
17. Ryan Cavan, 2B
18. Nick Noonan, 2B
19. Roger Kieschnick, OF
20. Carlos Willoughby, 2B
Now that we’re about a month and a half into the minor league season, and starters have garnered between 150 and 200 plate appearances, I wanted to check in on each of them and see how they’re doing, then at the end offer a self-critique of the job I did, as well as share some of my insights going forward.
Brandon Belt unexpectedly started the season with the Big Club, and performed as I feared, but anticipated: poorly. Well, he did have only 13 games at AAA before this season. He hit .192/.300/.262 in 60 plate appearances in San Francisco, and was sent back to Fresno when Cody Ross came off the DL. Since being sent down, he’s raked in Fresno to the tune of .362/.483/.560 in 120 plate appearances. While that line is certainly impressive, I’d like to see him stay in Fresno for two reasons: he’s striking out more often than I’d like him to (23% K-rate) and the ML club just doesn’t really need him right now. He could take, say, Darren Ford or Emmanuel Burriss’s spot, but they don’t profile to be anything more than bench players at the ML level anyway. Belt profiles to be an above-average first baseman, even an All-Star, and it would be a developmental mistake to bring him up to sit on the bench rather than let him get regular PA’s in Fresno. He could use the time learning to play outfield, also.
Francisco Peguero and Chuckie Jones have both yet to record a plate appearance this year. Peguero’s been hampered by a knee injury, and had to have surgery during spring training, but he is expected to return in the next two weeks or so. Chuckie Jones has been in extended spring training and will start the season in Salem-Keizer at low-A.
Tommy Joseph is a prospect that I was very high on coming into the season. Unfortunately, my enthusiasm hasn’t been rewarded, as Joseph has a .594 OPS in 183 PA’s. Luckily, he’s only 19, so he’s very young for the league, and should get all season to figure it out. He’s been splitting time at the catcher position with Hector Sanchez (more on him later), and I would like it better if he was getting full time there. Why doesn’t he start in single-A Augusta? Jeff Arnold is starting there, but he’s 23 and has a .599 OPS.
On the other hand, I was low on Gary Brown, and he has proved me wrong, so far anyway. He started the season in high-A San Jose, and through 214 PA’s sports a .366/.443/.541 slash line. I wrote before the season that his low walk rate in college had me concerned, but he’s walked at a more-than-respectable 7.9% rate so far. The .175 ISO is a surprise too, as no one had him pegged for that kind of power. What isn’t a surprise is his base stealing ability, and with 26 SBs so far, he’s living up to his reputation. 11 CSs so far is not very good, however, and suggests that he’s not making very smart decisions on the base paths. I assume he’s thinking that he can use his speed to steal bases at will, which doesn’t work in pro ball like it does in college. I expect him to make an adjustment and make smarter decisions, even if it means lower SB totals. As for his future, I see him as Andres Torres type player, maybe with more speed. His floor seems to be Michael Bourn: perennial Gold Glover who hits at a replacement level, but is an elite defender and good for 50-60 steals a season.
So that’s the top five. More brief write-ups on the next 15:
Thomas Neal has been injured, and is stuck in Fresno, where they seem to have an entire roster stocked with players who only play first base or corner outfield. He’s only got 40 PA’s on the season so far.
Coming into the season, my pet player was Jose Flores, who had an .831 OPS in San Jose last year, and was entering his age-23 season. Well, this far at least, it seems like those numbers were a California League fluke. So far in Double-A, he’s got a .501 OPS in 140 plate appearances, and has three times as many strikeouts as walks. He was finally benched two weeks ago.
Ehire Adrianza was injured in spring training, and started the season two weeks ago in single-A Augusta. He’s hitting .212/.381/.364 in 43 PA’s so far.
Charlie Culberson had a breakout season last year, and came into his age-22 season as a dark-horse prospect for AA Richmond. He’s struggled in the poor hitting environment there, hitting .296/.331/.385 in 182 plate appearances. He’ll have to improve that 3.8 BB% if he wants to continue his rise up the ranks.
Conor Gillaspie has rebounded somewhat from a down season last year, with an OPS of .788 at Triple-A Fresno in 167 plate appearances. His K-rate is 13% and his walk rate is 11%, both very impressive figures, and the .131 ISO isn’t terrible at third. With the Giants’ struggles on the left side of the infield, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him up with the big club at some point this season.
Brandon Crawford also began the season injured, after breaking a finger on a bunt attempt in spring training. He started the season in high-A San Jose, and has excelled thus far, hitting .286/.397/.490 in 59 plate appearances. He’ll be moving up to Richmond shortly, no doubt, and will probably see time in Fresno before all is said and done. The 15% BB rate is looking pretty nice, as is the .204 ISO.
Brock Bond’s time as a prospect is rapidly running out. He’s playing utility infielder at Fresno, and that was his absolute ceiling as a major league prospect anyway. He has a .671 OPS in 65 PA’s in Fresno.
Chris Dominguez is certainly living up to his reputation as the Giants’ version of Mark Reynolds. He’s already racked up 9 HRs and 51 Ks in just less than 200 PA’s this season. He could really build on that 5% BB rate if he wants to advance, though. The .180 ISO is nice, but the .315 OBP certainly isn’t. He’s already got 9 errors at third, too.
Jarrett Parker has made a fairly respectable professional debut thus far this season. He’s hitting .259/.380/.427 in 171 plate appearances. The 15% walk rate is great, but probably not likely to hold, while hope the 24% K-rate comes down too.
Hector Sanchez, as mentioned, has been splitting time with Tommy Joseph at catcher in San Jose. He’s hitting .302/.322/.496 in 146 plate appearances. The walk rate is downright scary, as is the K/BB ratio, but the .194 ISO looks great from a catcher.
Juan Carlos Perez has been starting at CF in Richmond, and, like every other hitter in Richmond, has been struggling in the poor hitting environment. He’s got an OPS of only .613 in 176 PA’s. He’s not helping himself with a walk rate of 4.5% and a K/BB of nearly 4, however.
Ryan Cavan was another one of my pet prospects heading into the season, and he’s hit quite nicely in San Jose, to the tune of .278/.344/.473. He’s got solid peripherals, with a 9% walk rate, a 16% strikeout rate, and a .195 ISO; all average or above-average numbers for a second baseman. I especially love the power numbers, but we’ll see how he handles the environment in Richmond. There’s a slight chance he reaches that level this year, more likely next season.
Nick Noonan made the switch from second base to shortstop this year, although will likely be switching back shortly with the return of Adrianza and Crawford. He’s got a .703 OPS in the (I sound like a broken record) poor hitting environment of Richmond.* He strikes out too much, but the 10% walk rate is solid.
*QUICK ASIDE ON RICHMOND (late addition): Throughout the post I've referred to "the poor hitting environment in Richmond" but I hadn't actually looked at the park factors, so after I finished this post I decided to look them up. I was right, but not as right as I thought I'd be. Briefly, park factors measure how a team's home park affect the hitting environment of the team. 1.0 means the park has no effect, less than 1.0 means the park depresses a particular outcome, greater than1.0 means it improves it. Richmond depresses runs, doubles, triples, and home runs, and is exactly average for hits. The only hitting outcome the park increases? Strikeouts. The park is especially bad for home runs, with a park factor of 0.91 in 2009 and 0.81 in 2010. That's a ton of lost home runs.
Outfielder Roger Kieschnick had a down year in 2010 after a solid debut in ’09, and unfortunately has been unable to bounce back in a repeat year in Double-A, hitting even worse than he did last year. A quick Google search indicates he suffered from some sort of back injury in 2010, and if his .089 ISO indicates anything, it’s that he hasn’t been able to recover from that injury.
Carlos Willoughby has started of the season reasonably well in Augusta, sporting a slash line of .286/.388/.357. No power to speak of, but he’s got a 1.1:1 K/BB ratio and a 12% walk rate, both of which are encouraging signs. He plays second base, where his lack of power is less of an issue, and all reports indicate he is a solid defender at worst. He’s also exhibiting some pretty good speed, with 17 steals in 21 attempts.
That rounds out the top 20. A few quick notes on some other players of interest, including players that I pegged as potential sleepers:
Centerfielder Chris Lofton has struggled in Augusta, hitting only .212/.344/.250 in 128 PA’s…The awesomely-names Sundrendy Windster has fallen flat on his face in single-A, with an OPS of only .425. Only 43 plate appearances however, so sample size is a factor to some extent…Rafael Rodriguez is only 18 years old in Augusta this year, but only has a .634 OPS. His young age means he’ll get a lot of time to try to figure it out…Ryan Scoma is having a decent season in Single-A Augusta, with an OPS of .725 and an ISO of .147, but he’s been moved to 1B and his upward mobility has been hampered by the move…Carter Jurica, the Giants’ 3rd round pick last year, has a .713 OPS and an 11% walk rate in high-A San Jose. Acceptable numbers from a shortstop, but I’d like to see him hit a little more…One slash line that stuck out to me is that of Adam Duvall, the 22-year-old third baseman at Augusta. He’s hitting .264/.347/.523, good for an .870 OPS on a team who’s OPS is .698, and in a league where the average OPS is .740. Sure, he’s 22 in single-A, but the average age for the league is a shade or two over 21, so it’s not like he’s terribly old for the league. He’s got a system-leading 12 HRs already this season, and I’m looking forward to keeping an eye on him as the season progresses.
Some impressions: I think I did a decent job on my preliminary list, but there are obviously changes I would make. Gary Brown's very impressive start to the season would get him elevated to the #2 positional prospect, jumping over Peguero and Jones. Flores would drop of the list completely, as would Brock Bond. Adam Duvall and Ryan Scoma would take their spots in the 19th and 20th positions, respectively. I would move Parker, Cavan, and Sanchez up, and bump Tommy Joseph, Juan Perez, and Charlie Culberson down a bit. In midseason I'll have an officially updated list, with a re-ranking of all 20.
So there’s the early season recap. There are still about 100 games left in the minor league season, not to mention the draft (post coming soon!) and the start of the short-season and rookie seasons. Still, it’s fun to check up on a few of the top prospects and see how they’re starting off the season. Look for another minor league update in about 5 weeks, but in the meantime I’ll be working on a draft preview and perhaps even a post or two about the big club.
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