Prospecting has never been my strong suit. I’ve always considered myself informed, but withdrawn from the Russian roulette game known as prospect mavenry. But, as my Giants fandom only gets worse (or better, depending on your point of view, I suppose) I decided to take my first-ever stab at making some sort of prospect list.
A few housekeeping items: I have decided to make two different lists, one for pitchers and one for hitters. This is the hitters list; the pitchers list will follow shortly. I chose to focus on the available professional statistics for many of the prospects that follow and weighed less on the scouting side of things; the obvious exceptions are those prospects with little or no professional experience (Gary Brown, Jarrett Parker). Still, I rank Brown and Parker lower than just about everybody else, with the caveat that they can move up this list very quickly if they start with a bang. I also weigh the most recent season’s statistics much heavier than any previous season.
With that out of the way, let’s get started. The top 5 catching prospects:
1. Tommy Joseph (18, A)
2. Hector Sanchez (20, A)
3. Johnny Monell (24, A+)
4. Dan Burkhart (21, A-)
5. Joe Staley (21, Rk)
Comments: LTP takes the top spot among catchers despite a poor season in Single-A Augusta. The caveat to his .236/.290/.401 season? He was only 18 years old, very young for full season A-ball. His .175 ISO looks good, but is K/BB is downright scary (116/26). Joseph has time on his hands, and should improve this season. Hector Sanchez was also young for A-ball (20 y.o.) and has displayed decent disciple. He is also the superior backstop. Monell spent the year in high-A San Jose. He was pretty old for the league (24) and put up a pretty decent line (.273/.350/.487 with 19 HRs and 25 doubles) but apparently needs work behind the dish. We’ll see how he handles AA. Burkhart is somewhat of an enigma (only 70 PAs) but after him the system is pretty shallow.
Top 5 First Basemen:
1. Brandon Belt (22, A+, AA, AAA)
2. Andy D’Alessio (25, AA)
3. Luke Anders (23, A)
4. Brett Pill (25, AAA)
5. Sundrendy Windster (21, Rk)
Comments: Belt’s season has been very well documented so I won’t go into much more detail here other than point out that he led all Giants minor leaguers with 23 HRs this season to go with 43 doubles. Not a whole lot else to get excited about except the intriguing Sundrendy Windster, who, in addition to having the greatest name in professional baseball, boasted a .311/.416/.594 line in ~130 PAs in rookie ball this year. Keep your eye on him.
Top 5 Second Baseman:
1. Charlie Culberson (21, A+)
2. Brock Bond (24, AAA)
3. Ryan Cavan (23, A)
4. Nick Noonan (21, AA)
5. Carlos Willoughby (21, Rk)
Comments: Culberson had quite the breakout year this year in high-A, putting up a line of .290/.340/.457 after finally finding a position. He seems to have something of a clank-mitt so we’ll see if he sticks at second base. He also tore up the Arizona Fall League and is considerably younger than I assumed (He’s only 22). The only thing I have to say about Bond is ZOMG that OBP and K/BB!! He’ll probably see some time in the majors this year. Ryan Cavan is a guy that not many people are talking about, but had a great season this year in Augusta (.283/.352/.451 with 17 HRs and 34 2Bs). He’s another guy to keep an eye on. Noonan needs to bounce back from injuries he suffered last season before I rank him higher. Willoughby is a great down-list sleeper. He had a great season in rookie ball (.295/.372/.432 with 23 SBs to only 4 CS) and has a reputation as a speedy middle infielder with not a lot of power.
Top 5 Third Baseman:
1. Jose Flores (22, A+)
2. Conor Gillaspie (22, AA)
3. Chris Dominguez (23, A)
4. Drew Biery (24, A+)
5. Wes Hobson (22, Rk)
Comments: Why is no one talking about Jose Flores? In his age-22 season in high-A, he hit .331/.381/.457 with an average walk rate and low K rate. I like him to surprise next year. Gillaspie had a bit of a down year last year, but is still on track to challenge for the major league job in 2012. Is Chris Dominguez the second coming of Mark Reynolds? In HRs and Ks, perhaps, but he doesn’t walk enough to justify a K rate around 25%. He did finish second amongst Giants minor leaguers with 21 HRs. Nothing else to look at after those three.
Top 5 Shortstops:
1. Ehire Adrianza (20, A+)
2. Brandon Crawford (23, AA)
3. Ryan Lormand (24, A+, AA, AAA)
4. Juan Martinez (23, A)
5. Carter Jurica (21, A-)
Comments: Yuck. Not a darn thing after all-glove/no-hit twins Adrianza and Crawford. Crawford (Bruin Pride, yo), who will almost certainly see Major League time this season, hit .243/.337/.375 at Richmond this season. At least that walk rate looks alright. Adrianza is three years younger than Crawford and hit .256/.333/.348 in San Jose. He’s got a slightly better glove than Crawford and is faster (33 SBs), those factors plus age gives him the number one spot by a nose. No one else worth mentioning here.
Top 5 Left Fielders: (Note: I understand that minor league OF positions are largely meaningless, but I needed to split them up somehow. Players are divided by the position at which they played the most games in 2010.)
1. Thomas Neal (22, AA)
2. James Simmons (24, A+)
3. Wendell Fairley (22, A+)
4. Nick Liles (22, A)
5. Ryan Scoma (22, A-)
Comments: Neal didn’t so much take a step back in 2010 as he did take a step sideways (or tread water, if you prefer). He hit .291/.359/.440, and the only beef I have with his performance is that I would like to see more power out of a left fielder. Simmons was quite old for high-A this year (24) but showed pretty good power (.186 ISO). Fairley took a huge step back this year after being reasonably highly touted last year. He joined the OPB>SLG club (.362 OBP, .343 SLG). Scoma just missed my top-5 sleepers list. He showed pretty fantastic patience in low-A this year, and just needs to develop some power before becoming a legit prospect.
Top 5 Center Fielders:
1. Francisco Peguero (22, A+)
2. Chuckie Jones (17, Rk)
3. Gary Brown (21, Rk)
4. Jarrett Parker (21, Rk)
5. Juan Perez (23, A+)
Comments: Peguero experienced a pretty significant breakout this year, with a line of .329/.353/.488 in high-A. He also stole 40 bags in San Jose. Unless he figures out how to take a walk, he figures to be a “slap in on the ground and run like hell” kind of hitter. The projection system ZiPS, rather bizarrely, has him as an average major leaguer right now. Re: Chuckie Jones, I know he probably won’t play center (more likely right) but he did play there the most this season. He hit .279/.360/.461 in 165 ABs in Rookie ball this year, as a 17 year-old. With any luck, he’ll have a good year this year and will shoot up the prospect charts. Brown and Parker come as a package deal: toolsy college outfielders without much (or, in Parker’s case, any) professional experience. I admit to just kind of sticking them in here, I’d like to see a few hundred PAs before making any kind of analysis. Brown’s lack of walks in college isn’t a great sign, though. Juan Perez was 23 in A+ last season, and hit .298/.337/.472. The K/BB ain’t great, but give him a year in AA and we’ll see where we stand.
Top 5 Right Fielders:
1. Roger Kieschnick (23, AA)
2. Rafael Rodriguez (17, A-, Rk)
3. Ryan Lollis (23, A)
4. Jose Medina (23, A-)
5. Clay Timpner (27, AA)
Comments: Kieschnick had something of a lost season after a year marred by back injuries. There really isn’t a whole lot in the system as far as right fielders, however, so he holds on to the top spot. We’ll see how he rebounds from injury. Rodriguez is only 17, so hopefully he’ll be able to build on last season in Rookie ball (.301/.323/.398). Lollis is intriguing, he was 23 in Augusta last year and hit .288/.345/.380. I’d like to see more power, but the above average walk rate and average K/BB rate show promise. The only interesting things about Medina and Timpner are their walk rates.
So there you have it. Here are my top 20 position players:
1. Brandon Belt, 1B
2. Francisco Peguero, OF
3. Chuckie Jones, OF
4. Tommy Joseph, C
5. Gary Brown, OF
6. Thomas Neal, OF
7. Jose Flores, 3B
8. Ehire Adrianza, SS
9. Charlie Culberson, 2B
10. Conor Gillaspie, 3B
11. Brandon Crawford, SS
12. Brock Bond, 2B
13. Chris Dominguez, 3B
14. Jarrett Parker, OF
15. Hector Sanchez, C
16. Juan Perez, OF
17. Ryan Cavan, 2B
18. Nick Noonan, 2B
19. Roger Kieschnick, OF
20. Carlos Willoughby, 2B
Comments: I am probably unnaturally high on Jose Flores, Ryan Cavan, and Carlos Willoughby, and unnaturally low on Brandon Crawford. Also, I’m really high on the Teenage Dreams: Jones and Joseph. As you can see, the system is pretty strong with second basemen and outfielders, and pretty weak on shortstops.
My top 5 sleepers (guys most likely to take the leap this year):
1. Jose Flores, 3B
2. Juan Perez, OF
3. Ryan Cavan, 2B
4. Chris Lofton, OF
5. Sundrendy Windster, 1B
Comments: I’ve commented on most of these guys already, but the CF class is so deep I had Chris Lofton ranked as our 7th best centerfielder. He hit .268/.350/.343 in low class-A Salem-Keizer as a 20 year old, to go along with 15 steals with only 5 caught stealing. He strikes out too much, but his walk rate is pretty good. If he can develop even a little bit of power than he can really make a move up the board.
So that’s my list. Feel free to leave some suggestions.
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