As Game 3 of the NLCS rages on, I wanted to take a look back on that roller-coaster division series and analyze it using the best stats I know that can numerically illustrate the up-and-down nature of each game. Therefore, I looked at both WPA (win percentage added) and LI (Leverage Index) to rate the players and the moments of each game.
Quickly, WPA uses data from years and years of game to calculate the winning probability of a team before and after a certain event, and then finds the difference. For example, when Rick Ankiel hit that titanic homerun off of Ramon Ramirez in the 11th inning of Game 2, the Braves went from a 44% chance of winning to an 82% chance, so Ankiel is credited with .380 win percentage added, and vice versa for Ramirez. In this way, batters or pitchers who come through in a big spot are rewarded for their “clutchiness” (or not, if they flop).
Leverage Index is a measurement of the “pressure” of a given situation. 1.0 is average, so a score over one is above-average pressure, and below one is below average. For my purposes, this stat is particularly useful for illustrating exactly how important a specific play is in the course of the game.
Alright, let’s get to the games:
Game One: Giants win 1-0, Giants lead series 1-0
Player of the Game: Tim Lincecum, +0.754 WPA
Well, that should have been obvious. Lincecum went for a complete game, two-hitter with 14 strikeouts. Plenty has already been written about this game already, so I’ll just add this: I have an uncle who is about as hard-core of a Phillies fan as there is. He texted my dad after Lincecum’s game and told him that Timmy’s performance impressed him much more than Roy Halladay’s no-hitter the night before.
Goat of the Game: Freddy Sanchez, -0.166 WPA
Sanchez went 0-4, grounded into a double play in the first, grounded to the pitcher in the 3rd that got Cody Ross tagged out in a rundown between third base and home, ground out to second in the 5th, and ground out to first to lead off the 8th. Not a whole lot to say about this game for Freddy, except that he saw a grand total of 8 pitches in four at-bats. Not a good day for him.
Play of the Game: Cody Ross singles to left, Posey scores (4th inning)
This play would amount to the only run of the game, and was worth .13 WPA all by itself. This play, of course, followed the controversial call at second base on a Posey steal (he hadn’t stolen a base all season). It was obvious upon replay that Posey was out by approximately a foot at second, and of course that mars the game. In conjunction with the other missed calls in the Division Series, I expect Major League Baseball to take another look at replay this winter.
That being said, I think Cody Ross played himself into a contract this series, and, especially, this postseason. He was, by WPA, the Giants’ second most important player (after Aubrey Huff) and he, of course, hit those three (so far) home runs in the NLCS. In fact, as I type this, he just hit a single to left with two outs to score Renteria, giving the Giants a 1-0 lead in Game 3. I fully expect Bochy to offer arbitration to Ross this winter, and to have him on as a 4th outfielder for around $3-4 million. He’s certainly much better than Jose Guillen, can run the basepaths and play outfield (+9 DRS, +3.4 UZR/150).
Game 2: Braves win 5-4 in 11 innings, series tied 1-1
Player of the Game: Pat Burrell, +0.242 WPA
Speaking of players that deserve another contract, how about Pat Burrell? The Bay Area native put up 2.5 fWAR this season after signing a minor-league deal May 29th. Want to hear the most shocking stat of the day? Guess how much value Burrell accumulated with his glove. Has to be a negative number right? I mean, he’s a self-described “water buffalo” in left field.
Well, you’d be wrong. According to FanGraphs, Burrell has a DRS score of +6 and an UZR score of +4.9. The things you learn.
Nearly all of his value this game derives from his first inning home run against Tommy Hanson, plating three runs and setting the Giants off on the right foot. Yeah, how’d that work out?
Goat of the Game: Buster Posey, -0.353 WPA
Seems wrong, right? I mean, the goat of the game has to be Sergio Romo, or Brian Wilson, or Ramon Ramirez, right? According to WPA, the second biggest play of the game was Posey’s double-play groundout to Troy Glaus (!!), which cost the Giants -0.33 WPA. Add in that he didn’t do much else for the rest of the game, while Ramirez racked up 0.14 WPA in the 10th before giving up Rick Ankiel’s monster shot in the 11th (0.38 WPA) to finish with only -0.154 WPA for the game.
Play of the Game: Rick Ankiel homers off of Ramon Ramirez, 11th inning.
One of the few times I’ve ever shouted at my TV before the hitter actually had hit the ball. The pitch was only about halfway to the plate, and I was already shouting “NO!!” I mean, it was a fastball right down the middle of the plate, belt high. I could have hit that halfway to Berkeley.
Game Three: Giants win 3-2, Giants lead series 2-1
Player of the Game: Buster Posey, +0.413 WPA, and Jonathan Sanchez, +0.486
I did an offensive and pitching player of the game because starting pitchers get so many more opportunities to affect their WPA. I chose not to do it for Game 1 because no Giant really did anything of note on offense. Fair? No. Sue me.
Posey gets most of his WPA from one play that will be remembered for a long time: his groundball to second that Brooks Conrad promptly Bucknered into right field. That play garnered 0.36 WPA for Posey, and sent me into hysterics. I cannot remember a sporting event that sent from an extreme high, to an extreme low, and back to an extreme high in such a short time period. Looking at the Win Probability Chart is really quite amusing (http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL201010100.shtml#wpa).
About 2 years ago, Joe Posnanski wrote “I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring because, well, baseball is boring. But then, suddenly, it’s not. And that what makes it so great.” It has been a long time since I saw a final two innings that gripped me as much as the 8th and 9th of this game did.
Quickly, on Jonathan Sanchez: kid looked great. He struck out 11 in 7 and a third, 2 hits, a run, and (importantly) only one walk. I know Lincecum and Halladay took all the playoff-debut thunder, but Sanchez didn’t do too shabby himself in his first-ever playoff start.
Goat of the Game: Sergio Romo, -0.535 WPA
This one was easy. Romo gave up a 2-run home run to Eric Hinske after Bruce Bochy got out-managed by the old dog, Bobby Cox. Another scream-at-my-TV moment. That home run alone was worth -0.55 WPA, but Romo stayed in to get the next two batters out at +0.01 WPA each.
I feel bad for Romo, who had one of the better middle-relief seasons by a Giant in recent memory. He had a 2.18 ERA, a WHIP under 1, and a K/9 over 10 with a BB/9 of less than 2 (hard to do, folks.) But he had such a terrible NLDS that I doubt Bochy will give him any work of note in the NLCS.
Play of the Game: Eric Hinske homers off of Sergio Romo, 8th inning.
In the words of Forrest Gump: “Well, that’s all there is to say about that.”
Game 4: Giants win 3-2, Giants win series 3-1.
Player of the Game: Cody Ross, +0.262 WPA
Jesus Giants, you want to stop with the one-run games? You’re killing me over here.
Cody Ross broke up Derek Lowe’s no-hitter with a one-out solo shot in the fifth inning. That tied the game at 1 and was worth 0.17 WPA all by itself. He then managed another 0.11 WPA when he singled Buster Posey home with two down in the seventh to give the Giants a 3-2 lead, a score that would hold. Man, is there anything this guy doesn’t do*?
*So I was reading my Twitter feed right after Game 3 of the NLCS ended (hell yes Giants!) and I saw that three consecutive MLB posts called Cody Ross, ‘Babe.’ I found this to be clever and funny, and immediately texted some of my Giants-loving friends that joke. As it turns out, apparently Tim McCarver called him that during the game and I had somehow missed it. Tim McCarver? Not the funniest or most clever person in the world. Damn.
I’ve talked about Ross enough, so just one last thing: by WPA (as I said earlier), he was the Giant’s second most important hitter this series (after Huff). Some people just get hot at the right time, huh?
Goat of the Game: Aaron Rowand, -0.124 WPA
There was no real goat to this game, so I’ll pass over this quickly. Rowand’s strike-out against Johnny Venters in the 7th could have really hurt the Giants, but Cody Ross followed it up with his single to score Posey. No harm, no foul.
Play of the Game: This one’s an interesting one.
There are actually four plays that are tied with a 17% swing in Win Expectancy. First, Brian McCann’s home run off of Madison Bumgarner in the sixth broke a 1-1 tie. Cody Ross’s home run in the top of the sixth made it tied in the first place. Melky Cabrera’s ground out to 3rd ended the game, and Juan Uribe reached on Troy Glaus’ error in the 7th, tying the game at 2. To add on to that, the 5th most important play, Brian Wilson striking out Omar Infante with one out in the ninth, had a Leverage Index score of 7.71! That means that at-bat was seven times as pressure-packed as an average at-bat. As this confusion indicates, this was a hard-fought game all the way through, and to name one play of the game wouldn’t be right.
Series Review
Well, that wasn’t good for my heart. Four consecutive games decided by one run. Home runs and blown saves and Cody Ross, oh my! But, in the end, the Giants advanced to the NLCS (and hold a 2-1 series lead!!!!) and all is right with the world. Some notable WPA figures:
Aubrey Huff: +0.278 WPA. He had a negative WPA in only one game, Game 1, and put up a huge 0.269 WPA effort in Game 3.
Buster Posey: +0.176 WPA. Good enough to tie him for third on the team (with Pat Burrell). Huge Games 1 and 3, but that double play ball in Game 2 killed him.
Pablo Sandoval: -0.167 WPA. And that was in only 2 games. Probably a good idea to keep him on the bench.
Andres Torres: -0.245 WPA. The worst score for a hitter. He didn’t have any downright awful games, but he only put up a positive score in one game (Game 1). He was benched for Game 3 of the NLCS, and that’s probably a good decision, because he’s definitely slumping.
Brian Wilson: +0.358 WPA. Blew a save in Game 2, came back in huge spots in Games 3 and 4. Andrew Baggerly tweeted earlier today, “Brian Wilson should change his entrance music to Rolling Stone’s ‘Paint It Black.’” Needless to say, the blog heartily agrees.
Sergio Romo: -0.679 WPA. Oof. It was a rough series for Romo, who started the Braves’ rally in Game Two and finished it in Game Three. He’s a fantastic setup man though, and I’m sure he’ll be back as good as ever.
Well, all in all, that was quite a series. After many trials and tribulations, the Giants are back in the NLCS for the first time since 2002, and I’ve can’t help but think of Scott Spiezio. Dammit. Giant’s baseball: torture, indeed.
